Wall Street’s major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.
The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.
These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.
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FOMC Restrictive Policy
According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) starts to unwind its restrictive policy.
Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:
“Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it’s still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.”
Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region’s critical oil infrastructure.
